Starship Launch Prediction Market
How do groups of people predict the future better than single experts? They trade in **Prediction Markets**. Instead of asking a single pundit, we let people bet real money on what will happen. In this interactive simulation, you'll step onto the trading floor, review private clues, and trade contracts ahead of a major SpaceX rocket launch.
How Prediction Markets Work
1. Binary Contracts
Every contract trades on a clear event: "Will the Starship land safely?" If it does, YES contracts pay out exactly $1.00. If it fails, they pay out $0.00.
2. Price = Probability
Since payout is always $1.00, the market price represents the estimated probability. If YES is trading at $0.55, the market thinks there is a 55% chance of success.
3. Wisdom of Crowds
Traders use private information to buy undervalued contracts or sell overvalued ones. As they trade, the price shifts, aggregating scattered knowledge into one highly accurate signal.
Your Mission
You start with $10.00 cash. Over 3 trading rounds, you will receive private clues about wind, booster systems, and fueling. If a clue increases the chance of success, YES contracts are cheap; buy them! If news is bad, YES contracts are overpriced; buy NO (short YES) to profit on failure. Let's see how much profit you can generate!
Starship Flight 10 Market
Private Intel Clue
This clue is yours alone. Other traders in the market don't know this yet!
Your Portfolio
Starship Launch T-0
The trading window is closed. Flight computers are fueled and pressurized. Let's see if the Starship successfully sticks the landing!
Starship Landing Successful!
The booster engines fired perfectly at T+5 minutes, bringing the ship to a soft hover and touchdown on the recovery pad.
Settle Account Ledger
Round-by-Round Recap
How the Market Aggregated Clues
During the simulation, you received private clues about wind, engine pressure, and fueling. Other traders received their own snippets. As traders bought and sold based on their pieces of the puzzle, the **market price aggregated these disparate clues** into a single probability. No single trader knew all the facts, yet the final price reflected the combined wisdom of everyone. This is why prediction markets are often more accurate than any single meteorologist, engineer, or CEO!